Thursday, February 25, 2010

Passively Provocative


I've read differing arguments about the likelihood of entering an armed conflict with China. Most of those who think the idea is unlikely point to our economic overlap, noting that fighting one another would be irrational. I think Americans need to understand the Chinese value more than just economic prowess, although that is very important to them. The concept of One China is far more important to the PRC's legitimacy. Proof is in an article published in the UK's Times Online.

Here are some highlights

some highlights.

Now almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run newspaper, agree that “a cold war will break out between the US and China”.
“We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
This time China must punish the US,” said Major-General Yang Yi, a naval officer. “We must make them hurt.” A major-general in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Luo Yuan, told a television audience that more missiles would be deployed against Taiwan. And a PLA strategist, Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would “qualitatively upgrade” its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown “when we’re strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US”
I believe the above statements prove that state weakness can be just as, if not more, provocative than state strength.

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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Fool me once...


Fool me once, strike one. Fool me twice, strike three.
-Michael Scott



I think were on strike 5 by now.

To say the least, I am disappointed with this administrations handling of national security thus far. Constitutionally, defense takes precedence over every state endeavor. This administration doesn't treat national security with the deference it deserves. Though they have had their successes in Afghanistan, it seems as though we have turned a blind eye to other issues that are of much more consequence.

Secretary Gates published an article in Foreign Affairs about a year ago entitled "A Balanced Strategy." The crux of his argument was since the United States has limited resources, we must allocate them in a balanced manner towards both large and small threats. Essentially this meant reallocating funds from large threat expenditures, and moving them towards low intensity threats. Inevitably, Gates admits that we will be accepting risk on low probability, high impact threats, while lowering risk in high probability, low impact threats. This strategy, which had decreasing defense expenditures and waste at its heart, was noble, but has now hurt our ability to defend the United States in the short term and long term.

What am I talking about specifically?

Canceling the F22 - The Weekly Standard just published an eye opening article into the severe miscalculations we have made about assessing foreign air threats, and our ability to maintain air superiority. The Russians and Chinese are working feverishly towards a capability to threaten US air superiority. The F-22 was our sole guarantee to such dominance, and we capped the numbers at 187. Instead, the administration favored the F-35, which has been delayed, poorly managed, and is costing billions more than expected. The F-35 is also not able to carry out the air superiority mission like the F-22. Now the F-22 production lines are closed and were stuck with a castrated jet.

The F-22 was not meant to fight, although it certainly has the capability to do. It was meant to dissuade and deter our opponents from settling issues on the battlefield. Now, we may not have that ability.

Read more in DSSFeed's previous posts, here.

The scaling back of missile defense - While I was pleased to see the successful testing of the Airborne Laser (ABL), a program which I admittedly thought would fail and still have my doubts about, the handling of missile defense has been quiet. We have seen the scaling back of missile defense and our ability to counter rogue threats, which has also hurt our relationship with our European allies. The desire for an expanded program is there. Nuclear tipped ballistic missiles are the greatest threat to western civilization, and our ability to survive in a hostile world depends on a robust missile defense system. This administration however relies on a lofty goal of nuclear zero, a policy no practical thinker on nuclear policy accepts. Missile defense is here today, and it works.

Closing Guantanamo - The issue with the closing of Guantanamo was not that I have a particular infatuation with a southeast bay in Cuba. Rather, I take issue with the lack of planning this administration gave to its closure. It was a knee jerk reaction that a wide eyed president promised. Now we have dozens of combatants which we are searching to parse off, and that may come back to fight us in the long term. Now the administration is backpedaling, hinting at the support of an indefinite detention law. Though there is no question that Guantanamo carried considerable political baggage, and it's closing may have paid diplomatic dividends elsewhere, it should have been done with a more carefully thought out plan.

My frustration will undoubtedly continue, but I am excited that Republicans have a shot at retaking House and Senate seats which may promise gridlock in Washington, which is a nice respite after experiencing a Democratic supermajority.

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Saturday, February 6, 2010

So. Much. Snow.

Not defense related, but DC is being hammered by snow. Lots of it.

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About Missouri State

Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies (DSS), located in Fairfax, VA, provides professional, graduate-level education in national security policy; foreign policy; arms control; missile proliferation; international security affairs; defense policy analysis, planning and programs; and intelligence analysis.

Disclaimer

The opinions of this blog in no way reflect the faculty of Missouri State University. They are just the incessant ramblings of a few graduate students. They may or may not be currently seeking employment, girlfriends, or free goods and services.

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