America's Strategic Posture

In the past several weeks, two key reports came out that analyzed the strategic posture and nuclear weapons policy of the United States. The one put out by the Strategic Posture Commission that was chaired by William Perry and James Schlesinger and included panel members Keith Payne and James Woolsey can be found here. The Council on Foreign Relations published a report on the U.S. nuclear weapons policy, which was chaired by William Perry and Brent Scowcroft, can be found here.
While the reports carry key differences, it is remarkable the amount of congruence between them. Some of the major similarities concerning the role of nuclear weapons include:

• Nukes assure U.S. allies through extended deterrence
• Geopolitical conditions for a "world without nuclear weapons" do not currently exist
• Nuclear hedging is an appropriate strategy in an uncertain world
• Ambiguity has been, and continues to be, good for U.S. deterrence
• Importance of assurance/consultation with allies before changes in nuclear posture
• Nuclear terrorism is more likely to take place than deliberate use by a state

There are also major similarities concerning modernization and arms control:

• Article VI of the NPT calls for "nuclear as well as general" disarmament
• Modernization of nuclear warheads can take place simultaneously with reductions
• Both reports recognize that all other P5 states are modernizing their arsenals
• The nuclear infrastructure and human expertise is decaying through lack of funds and a shortage of people entering the career field
• Support for the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) and strengthening of the NPT

I encourage you to read the reports (at least their "findings" and "recommendations" sections) in order to reach your own conclusions and see what the experts are saying. The reports were divided on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which could be coming before the Senate in the next year. Also, the NPT Review Conference is set to take place in 2010 (with a preparatory session this month), so this debate is only going to get more important in the very near future.