Sunday, April 5, 2009

Fail

Inferior soldier 1: There goes the TD-2.
Inferior soldier 2: going...going....going... and its in the pacific
Inferior soldier 1: What should we tell the Dear Leader?
Inferior soldier 2: Great success!


So the North Korean missile... err satellite launch failed. I can't say that I am surprised, but it does prove Kim Jong Il's willingness to push the limits of the international community, and more specifically the United States Commander in Chief. He launched a more overtly hostile missile, the TD-2, in 2006, and now through perhaps a more benign medium (a satellite test), he tested a similar missile capability.

Not surprisingly, North Korea state media reported the launch as a success.

So how do we punish this defiant child? Obama is opting for the Security Council route. There, he has legal standing to punish the North Korean regime. In 2006 the Security Council passed resolution 1718 which "demands" (funny how the boys in the UN think they can emphatically use words like demand) the North Korean regime to halt any further testing. We've been down this road before though; the following resolutions strictly prohibit DPRK from testing such missiles. Resolution 825 (the link to this resolution is dead on the UN site... the full text is on wikisource) (1993), resolution 1540 (2004) and, in particular, resolution 1695 (2006). Nothing the security council has drafted or "unanimously decided on will curb that actions of the North Korean regime. Keep in mind all of these resolutions were targeted solely at North Korea. It is clear that the UN can fill a symbolic role in punishing the DPRK, but put faith in anything more is naive.

John Bolton, former representative to the UN lamented on Fox News recently,

I don't think the U.N.'s going to do much of anything. I think it's very unlikely they'll get a stiff sanctions resolution. The sanctions that were imposed in 2006, when North Korea tested missiles and a nuclear device, obviously haven't not stopped them.

I think the real pressure has to be applied on China, which gives North Korea 80 to 90 percent of its energy and a substantial amount of its food and other humanitarian needs. China's got the capability to stop this nuclear program. We've just never applied adequate pressure to them.

This is how you suffocate a tyrannical regime. If Kim Jong Il will not change his policies, then this gives us a rare opportunity to work with China and cut off the regimes life support.

I would assume a nuclear North Korea with a relatively unstable leader is not within the Chinese national interest. However the Chinese would not want a reunified peninsula.

The PRC is crafty and could relieve North Korea of its nuclear program with relative ease. It's up to Obama to figure out a way to do that.

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Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies (DSS), located in Fairfax, VA, provides professional, graduate-level education in national security policy; foreign policy; arms control; missile proliferation; international security affairs; defense policy analysis, planning and programs; and intelligence analysis.

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